Social media posts share misleading claims about job numbers and recessions

A trending Facebook post by Occupy Democrats quotes California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s claim that “15.6 million jobs were created under Biden,” amounting to “8 times more than the last 3 Republican presidents combined.” Newsom, who made the claim after last week’s presidential debate between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump, added that “the only thing the last 3 Republican presidents have in common is recessions.”

This post from Occupy Democrats needs context and is somewhat misleading.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), as of January 2021, non-farm employment has increased by 15.63 million under the Biden administration, making the claim technically true. However, it leaves out the context that the COVID-19 pandemic caused the US economy to lose an estimated 20.48 million non-farm payroll jobs between March and April 2020.

Biden’s employment growth figures benefit from the fact that he took office as president when employment was in a deep but temporary trough. The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculated that the economy lost 21.4 million jobs in March and April 2020 due to the COVID-19 shutdowns, and when Biden took office, the country still had almost 9.4 million fewer jobs than before the pandemic. When compared to pre-pandemic employment trends, however, only about 6.2 million jobs have been added to the network economy during Biden’s time in office.”

Nonfarm payrolls data from FRED show that under President George HW Bush the economy added 2.63 million jobs; under President George W. Bush the economy added about 1.37 million jobs; and under President Trump, the economy lost an estimated 2.72 million jobs as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. So technically, the last three Republican presidents have added about 1.28 million off-farm jobs to the US economy.

If only Biden’s net non-farm employment numbers (6.2 million jobs) are used, it is clear that Biden has only created about 4.8 times the number of jobs than the last three Republican presidents combined, not eight times .

It is true that the United States experienced recessions under Trump and both Bushes, but this claim also lacks context. The economy was indeed in recession from August 1990 to March 1991 under George HW Bush. While George W. Bush was president, there was a recession from March 2001 to November 2001, which was largely attributed to the bursting of the dot-com bubble, and from January 2008 to June 2009. Under Donald Trump, there was a brief recession from March to April 2020 caused by the pandemic and its accompanying lockdowns. It was the shortest recession ever recorded.